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Market Update
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Dear BOC Customer,
We would like to provide an important update regarding current ocean freight market conditions. We are experiencing an extremely tight space situation and significant increases in ocean freight rates beginning June 1st.
The market is being impacted by a combination of increased cargo demand, shrinking vessel capacity due to blank sailings, slow steaming initiatives to conserve fuel, and ongoing global supply chain disruptions related to geopolitical conflicts.
Below are four key reasons driving the recent surge in shipping volume:
Tariff-Driven Front Loading
Importers are pulling cargo forward to avoid potential replacement Section 301 and 232 tariffs expected after the expiration of the current Section 122 tariffs on July 24th. The USTR team, led by Ambassador Greer, along with the Administration, continues to move aggressively toward implementing new tariffs to recover lost duty revenue. In addition, a recent Court of International Trade (CIT) ruling questioning the legality of the Section 122 tariffs has created further urgency among importers to ship early.
Rising Manufacturing Input Costs
Suppliers are signaling upcoming product price increases driven by higher energy and manufacturing input costs. As a result, importers are attempting to maximize shipments under existing purchase orders before new pricing takes effect.
Traditional Peak Season Shipping
The annual pre-holiday shipping season is beginning, which traditionally increases overall cargo volumes. While current forecasts suggest a normal peak season, the seasonal increase is adding additional pressure to already constrained capacity.
Stronger U.S. Manufacturing Activity
Recent economic data has shown stronger-than-expected growth in U.S. manufacturing activity, contributing to increased freight demand.
Key manufacturing indicators include:
- The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.3 in May, the highest reading in approximately four years and well above the 50 level that signals expansion.
- The Chicago Business Barometer (Chicago PMI) surged to 62.7 from 49.2, reflecting strong growth in manufacturing activity, new orders, and production.
- The Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing survey also showed improvements in shipments, new orders, and employment.
- The Federal Reserve reported that U.S. manufacturing output increased 0.6% in April, continuing a positive production trend.
With these market conditions in mind, we recommend the following:
Book Shipments Early
Please book shipments as far in advance as possible. We are currently seeing many bookings require 2–4 weeks to secure vessel space, with China origins — particularly Ningbo — experiencing the greatest challenges.
Prepare for Continued Rate Volatility
Ocean carriers continue to aggressively manage capacity, and rate increases are being driven directly by carrier pricing actions. Similar to the COVID period, carriers are increasing prices in response to elevated demand conditions to maximize profits.
Communicate Internally
Please advise all internal stakeholders to prepare for longer transit times, reduced schedule reliability, and elevated transportation costs in the near term.
Potential Fourth Quarter Relief
There is potential for lower freight costs later in the fourth quarter due to front-loading activity and slowing economic conditions. However, ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitical conflicts continues to create a highly fluid market environment.
Please contact your BOC representative with any questions or for additional guidance regarding your shipments.
Thank you,
BOC International
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