Transatlantic Air Freight Rates Soar as US Imposes Europe Travel Ban

Theloadstar.com March 12, 2020

Transatlantic air freight rates are expected to soar, possibly overnight, following the US travel ban on mainland Europe, excluding – for now – the UK and Ireland.

Up to 80% of air freight capacity on the transatlantic could be cut as airlines ground passenger flights, with bellies normally taking the lion’s share of the capacity on the route.

“IAG, Air Canada, Virgin and Aer Lingus are all going to be very busy,” said one senior air freight analyst. “There is a tremendous amount of trade between the two continents, and the vast majority is in bellies. If that capacity plunges, you can only imagine the reduction in trade on the Atlantic. There is going to be tremendous pressure on capacity.”

One European forwarder told The Loadstar: “This is going to be another case of ‘pay to play’. Where prices are going to go is anyone’s guess.” Current dynamic load factors on the transatlantic are 78% westbound, and 60% eastbound, according to Clive Data Services. Even with a modest assumption of 60% of the capacity removed, demand is easily going to outstrip supply.

“There are so few airlines with freighters left,” said the analyst. “The US majors have none, it’s really only Lufthansa and AF-KLM, and they have cut their freighter fleets. This is a big gift for IAG.”

Forwarders said that any BSAs on non-cut capacity would be unlikely to be honored by the airlines, and in any event, most contracts would only last until the end of the month.

“The US market tends to work on spot rates anyway.”

Airlines throughout Europe are said to be in meetings to determine how to manage their capacity, with more information expected this afternoon. Some are already talking about using passenger aircraft just to move freight on the transatlantic – and are looking to command a high price for it.

Trucking is also expected to be key, with mainland European carriers looking to fly goods into Canada and Mexico on passenger aircraft and trucked over the borders into the US. In Europe, forwarders are looking to truck freight into the UK for Virgin and IAG flights into the US.

“Cargo is going to be redirected and trucked,” said one forwarder. “The multinational forwarders will already be diverting it to the UK.”

However, belly capacity from the UK has already been cut. BA announced on 2 March it was cutting back transatlantic flights as passenger demand fell. Norwegian cancelled 22 long-haul flights between Europe and the US from 28 March to 5 May.

Section 301 Large Civil Aircraft (LCA) Trade Remedy – Modification March 5, 2020 and March 18, 2020

CBP Modification, Section 301 duties for EU/EU Member States

The U.S. has been in dispute with the European Union (EU) and certain EU member states concerning the subsidies provided on large civil aircrafts that are inconsistent under SCM Agreement and GATT 1994 obligations.  CBP has posted the modification to the additional Section 301 duties for EU and EU member states, on February 21,2020 please see 85 FR 10204.  Please see the below chart from Cargo System Messaging Service (CSMS)

CBP CSMS # 41840662

CSMS #41840662 – Section 301 Large Civil Aircraft (LCA) Trade Remedy –
Modification March 5, 2020 and March 18, 2020

The purpose of this memorandum is to provide notice of the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) modification determination to impose additional duties on products of the European Union (EU) or certain member states.  The effective date is dependent on the section of Annex 1 and may be either on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time March 5, 2020 or on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time March 18, 2020.  The complete list of affected products, countries of origin, Chapter 99 HTSUS numbers, and the associated effective dates and tariff rates is attached to the end of this memo.

BACKGROUND:

Effective October 18, 2019, the USTR imposed additional duties on certain products of the EU and certain EU member States in this Section 301 investigation to enforce U.S. WTO rights in the Large Civil Aircraft (LCA) dispute published in the Federal Register 84 FR 54245. On December 12, 2019, the USTR announced a review of the Section 301 action and requested public comments.

On February 21, 2020, based on this review, the USTR published a Modification to the LCA dispute in 85 FR 10204 to revise the action being taken by increasing the rate of additional duties on certain LCA, and by modifying the list of other products of certain current and former EU member States subject to additional 25 percent duties.

As specified in the annexes to FR notice 85 FR 10204 , the USTR has determined to increase the duties on certain LCA from 10 percent to 15 percent.  The countries that are affected by the duty increase for LCA are France or Germany.

The USTR has also changed the composition of the list of products subject to additional duties of 25 percent. As of this time, the USTR has decided not to increase the rate of additional duties above the additional 25 percent currently being applied to non-aircraft products. The countries that are affected by the change to the list of products are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden or the United Kingdom.  The LCA Section 301 duties only apply to products of the countries set forth in the Annex to FR notice 85 FR 10204.

The USTR has also determined that going forward, the action may be revised as appropriate immediately upon any EU imposition of additional duties on U.S. products in connection with the LCA dispute or with the EU’s WTO challenge to the alleged subsidization of U.S. large civil aircraft.

GUIDANCE:

The modifications set out in the Annex 1, subparagraphs A and B are applicable with respect to products that are entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time on March 5, 2020.  The modifications in additional import duties for products set out in Annex 1, subparagraph C, apply to merchandise entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time March 18, 2020.  A complete list of products subject to the remedy and assessed duties are set out in FR notice 85 FR 10204.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

Any product listed in the Annex 1, except any product that is eligible for admission under ‘domestic status’ as defined in 19 CFR 146.43, which is subject to the additional duty imposed by this determination, and is admitted into a U.S. foreign trade zone on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on March 5, 2020 or March 18, 2020 (only) may be admitted as ‘privileged foreign status’ as defined in 19 CFR 146.41. Such products will be subject upon entry for consumption to any ad valorem rates of duty or quantitative limitations related to the classification under the applicable HTSUS subheading.

Reminder: When importers, brokers, and/or filers are submitting an entry summary in which a heading or subheading in Chapter 99 is claimed on imported merchandise, refer them to CSMS 39587858 (Entry Summary Order of Reporting for Multiple HTS when 98 or 99 HTS are Required).

Please ensure the FR notice 85 FR 10204 is passed to all Center Directors, Assistant Center Directors, Port Directors, Assistant Port Directors (Trade), Import Specialists, CBP Officers, and Entry Specialists.  If field personnel have any questions regarding the Section 301 remedy described in the United States Trade Representative (USTR) Notices of Action, please contact traderemedy@cbp.dhs.gov.

Related Messages: CSMS 40430843, 40281968

UPDATE: Coronavirus/COVID-19 Origin Operation

Over the past week or so, the China government has reportedly lowered COVID-19 emergency response levels in some provinces, allowing workforce back into production. Return-to-work restrictions/requirements from the Chinese local authorities and some office building management teams remain in place.

A larger portion of our colleagues in China have returned to the offices, and the team is strictly following precautionary measures. While some teammates are working from home, we are operationally ready to manage business as normal:

Shanghai, Ningbo, Taiwan and Hong Kong: 100% of the teams are working in the office. 

Qingdao: 90% of the team is working in the office, with 10% working from home.

Shenzhen: 60% of the team is working in the office, with 40% working from home.

Xiamen, Fuzhou and Tianjin: 50% of the team is working in the office, with 50% working from home.

Dalian: 40% of the team is working in the office, with 60% working from home.

We continue to work with the relevant authorities to bring the full team safely back into our offices.

Other Market Developments

Drayage in China:  Cross-border trucking between China and Hong Kong continues to run, but it is highly recommended that bookings are made at least 2 days in advance to ensure driver availability. 

Availability of inland trucking in mainland China remains limited, advanced bookings of at least 2-3 days are required to secure trucking services.

International Air and Ocean Freight:  Production and export volumes from China have increased as the workforce returns, and demand for airfreight space, particularly to the rest of Asia, is picking up. There are also indications that ocean freight shippers are looking to switch modes in a bid to ‘catch up’ on schedules, further accelerating the demand for airfreight.

We are not expecting a quick reinstatement of cancelled airfreight capacity on both freighter and passenger flights outbound China, which we estimate to be well above 30% of last year’s global capacity (50% to the US, 50% to Asia, 35% to Europe), particularly passenger flights, as many countries maintain advisories against travel to China. At this point, we anticipate that airlines will initiate a resumption of capacity no earlier than the third week of March.

Airfreight rates soared on the China-Asia routes as capacity pulled out of this market is most significant, and demand for space has become ‘red-hot’. Air charters are in high demand, but supply is soft as the availability of aircraft and crew remain challenged.

The fallout from COVID-19 is strongly felt in the container shipping market. According to Alphaliner, Q1 2020 volumes at ports in China and Hong Kong are estimated to have reduced by more than 6 million TEUs due to the extended Lunar New Year holiday and COVID-19 containment measures.

Currently, container equipment is sufficient in China, but the availability of Non-Operating Reefers (NOR) is diminishing.

We will continue to update you as we receive more information. If you have questions, please contact your BOC Representative.

Coronavirus / COVID-19 Operational Update

• Work Arrangements – Our teams are working as much as possible, guided by advice from local authorities to protect the well-being of our staff while maintaining maximum coverage and minimal operational disruption as possible

• In China, our team is operating either from our offices or their homes, and we have implemented tiered working hours.

• In Hong Kong, a portion of our staff is working from home while the rest is working from the office.

• Market Developments

• Factories in China are gradually resuming operations at a varying pace, a slow ramp-up in production and exports are still to be expected.

• Drayage in China: Various provinces and cities have imposed restrictions on the entry of non-residents and vehicles registered outside their localities. This has given rise to a shortage and/or rate increase of inland trucking in the mainland China as truck drivers have not been able to return from their hometowns to their work regions post-holiday. Advanced bookings of at least 2 days is required to secure trucking services.

• Air Freight: A large number of passenger and freighter flights to and from China have been cancelled, severely impacting capacity. Though freighter flights have gradually been reinstated from last week, with demand far outstripping supply, airfreight rates will likely be much higher than normal.

• Ocean Freight: All Chinese ports except Wuhan are currently operational. However, many container yards have yet to re-open, potentially causing equipment shortages.

• Global Port Developments

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as we have them. Please contact your BOC Representative, if you have any questions.

Canceled Flights, Asia, Update During the Coronavirus Outbreak

Since the coronavirus outbreak in China, many airlines have canceled flights. As we receive more information, we will continue to update you. If you have questions, please contact your BOC Representative.

Airlines Cancel Flights to/from China, Coronavirus

Delta, American airlines to stop all China flights as coronavirus crisis grows

Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/2020/01/31/coronavirus-china-flight-ban-delta-cuts-all-flights-white-house/4620989002/

Delta and American on Friday temporarily canceled all of their China flights in response to the coronavirus outbreak, becoming the first domestic carriers to make the move.

As of Friday, the outbreak had infected nearly 10,000 people, most of them in China, and killed more than 200, all in China.

The U.S. State Department late Thursday elevated its China travel advisory to level 4, recommending that Americans do not travel there. That change followed the World Health Organization’s declaration of a global health emergency over coronavirus.

Tuesday White House officials said they were considering a China travel ban but said then they had not contacted the airlines. Still, if United, the other U.S. carrier serving China with nonstop flights, follows its rivals’ lead, the need for White House intervention may be moot. United has already reduced its scheduled China flights.

American Airlines

American cited the State Department’s updated travel advisory Friday in suspending its U.S.-China routes immediately through March 28. The airline said it would contact the affected customers directly to help them make alternate travel arrangements.

“We will continue to evaluate the schedule for March 28 and beyond and make any adjustments as necessary,” the airline said in a statement.

Delta Airlines

Atlanta-based Delta on Friday said it would suspend its U.S.-China flights from Feb. 6 through April 30.

Coronavirus Grounds Flights to China From 3 Continents. How Scared Should Travelers Be?

Source: https://time.com/5774906/airlines-ground-flights-coronavirus/

Airlines in Europe, Asia and North America are cancelling flights to and from China as the novel coronavirus, which originated in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has infected at least a few thousand people in China and dozens beyond its borders.

Although all 171 deaths from the disease have been limited to China, at least 82 people across 18 different countries have tested positive for the mysterious illness, prompting governments around the world to issue travel advisories and start evacuating their citizens from Wuhan. Chinese authorities have shut down travel in and out of Wuhan and enacted similar, strict transportation restrictions in a number of other cities.

The majority of cases outside China are associated with travel to China and of those, the vast majority involve travel to Wuhan, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

Which airlines have cancelled flights?

British Airways cancelled all flights to and from Beijing and Shanghai until at least Friday following local authorities’ advice against “all but essential travel to mainland China.” Flights to and from Hong Kong will remain unaffected, the airline said.

British Airways cancelled all flights to and from Beijing and Shanghai until at least Friday following local authorities’ advice against “all but essential travel to mainland China.” Flights to and from Hong Kong will remain unaffected, the airline said.

UPDATE – China extends Lunar New Year holidays to
contain coronavirus outbreak – updated Jan 30, 2020

Update: the Chinese government has extended CNY holidays in China, in order to help keep people safe and contain the coronavirus. A few additional China Cities/Provinces, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, have extended their earliest permissible dates for businesses to resume operations. The General Office of the State Council said in its announcement that the measure is taken to effectively reduce mass gatherings, block the spread of the epidemic, and to better safeguard the safety and health of the people.

All businesses, including our industry, are mandatorily required to obey the posted closings (below).

Our origin offices in China will resume operations as follows:

• February 10 – Shanghai, Ningbo, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Fuzhou and Qingdao
• February 3 – the remainder of China not listed above

Please note that the above list is subject to change according to government announcements that may follow.

In order to minimize operational impact, within reason (whilst keeping in mind the containment of virus outbreak), we have limited staff working from home to attend to bookings / urgent issues where required. This arrangement applies to locations that will remain closed next week. Please note, however, that many companies, such as shippers, are simply remaining closed until the dates listed above, so gathering information and documents is difficult.

Our team in Taiwan resumed work today (January 30), and Hong Kong resumed operations yesterday (January 29), with special arrangements to minimize exposure to the virus (e.g. staff to work from home or flexible hours in office for remainder of this week).

Your understanding and patience is appreciated.

Please contact your BOC Representative if you have questions.

China extends Lunar New Year holidays to contain coronavirus outbreak

China has announced a nationwide extension to the Lunar New Year holidays as a measure to contain the coronavirus outbreak. The Shanghai municipal government further announced that companies may only resume office on February 10.

The holiday, originally to end on January 30, has been extended to February 2 nationwide.

Our offices in China will resume operations as follows:

• February 10 in Shanghai and Ningbo
• February 3 in the rest of China

While Hong Kong officially returns to the office from the holidays on Wednesday, the 29th, we expect some impact to our ocean and air freight operations based out of China.

We will monitor the situation and keep you updated.

Thank you very much.

Please contact your BOC Representative with any questions.