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October BOC Market Update
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Market Overview
The transpacific market remains firm as we move through the first week of October, with only limited signs of improvement so far.
China remains in the Golden Week holiday period through October 7, which has temporarily reduced booking activity. The next 7–10 days will be important as factories reopen and we get a better indication of whether there will be a meaningful post-holiday surge. At this point, we do not expect a significant improvement in overall market conditions until the end of October. Schedule reliability, blank sailings, and inland delays continue to make the market challenging. November is more likely to be the period when we begin to see more meaningful improvement, assuming post-Golden Week demand settles and carriers do not aggressively remove additional capacity.
Capacity and Blank Sailings
The market still has sufficient nominal capacity, although carriers continue to manage that capacity through blank sailings and schedule changes.
Blank sailings around Golden Week have not been as aggressive as in some previous years, but carriers can still remove additional capacity if demand weakens.
The bigger issue right now is not necessarily whether vessel space is available, but whether schedules can be relied upon. Space may be available, but inconsistent sailing schedules continue to make planning difficult.
Schedule Reliability
Schedule reliability remains one of the market’s biggest concerns and has not improved enough to materially change overall conditions. Vessel delays, changing rotations, and vessel bunching continue to create uncertainty. We are also seeing some cargo delayed for multiple weeks at transshipment ports while waiting to connect with the mother vessel. Even with confirmed space, shipments can still be impacted by schedule changes, missed connections, and shifting port arrival times. Until schedule reliability improves, the market will remain tighter and more difficult than available capacity numbers suggest.
Inland Rail
Inland rail remains an area to watch, particularly from the US West Coast into Midwest destinations such as Chicago.
Rail dwell times remain elevated in certain markets, and delays can offset some of the transit-time advantages of moving cargo through the West Coast.
For inland cargo, we continue to recommend looking closely at the entire transit, not just the ocean portion, because landside delays remain a significant part of the overall service issue.
We do not expect inland conditions to improve immediately, and this will likely remain an important consideration throughout October.
Panama Canal
Panama Canal conditions have improved slightly over the past couple of weeks, but the improvement has not been significant enough to materially change Asia to US East Coast market conditions.
During August and September, lower rainfall and declining water levels raised concerns about additional draft restrictions and reductions in daily vessel transits.
The Panama Canal has increased the maximum Neopanamax draft to 49 feet, allowing larger container vessels to carry more cargo through the Canal.
Beginning October 15, Neopanamax transits are also scheduled to increase from 9 to 10 per day, bringing total Canal capacity to approximately 33 vessels per day.
This is a positive development, but at this point I would consider it a minor improvement rather than a major change for Asia to US East Coast services.
The Canal is not completely back to normal. Water conditions still need to be monitored, and confirmed reservations remain important for maintaining vessel schedules. The immediate risk has improved compared with late summer, but Panama remains something we need to watch closely, especially since the dry season begins in December with an El Niño weather pattern forecasted.
October Outlook
The next two weeks should give us a much clearer picture of the market’s direction.
The key factor will be booking activity once China fully reopens following Golden Week.
If cargo volumes increase sharply, carriers will have a better chance of maintaining or increasing current rate levels.
If bookings return slowly, we expect rates to stay flat or come under additional pressure as we approach November.
We expect October to remain operationally difficult, with limited improvement in schedule reliability and overall transit performance.
We believe November is the period when the market has a better chance of showing more noticeable improvement, particularly if demand slows seasonally.
At this point, our main areas of focus are:
- Schedule reliability and vessel delays
- Post-Golden Week booking levels
- Carrier capacity management and blank sailings
- Inland rail congestion
- Panama Canal conditions
Overall, the market could improve, but conditions have not changed enough yet to call it a meaningful shift. Space remains tight, largely due to continued schedule unreliability, missed connections, and inland delays. We expect October to remain challenging, with November offering a better opportunity for more noticeable improvement in overall service levels and transit performance. We will continue to monitor the market closely and provide updates as conditions develop.
BOC is here for you as your intelligent logistics partner for companies that expect more than transportation. We combine technology, market intelligence, and exceptional people to build stronger supply chains.
Let’s succeed together. Thank you for all your support.
Best, Patrick Fay
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